Wemby isn’t that guy. And not just because the pressure will get to him or I’m hating just to hate, but I don’t think he’s a Hall of Famer, and the stats back me up. Before I lay out my argument, it’s important to understand the expectations being placed on Victor Wembanyama. Analysts and scouts have compared him to Kevin Durant, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Luka Doncic, and even LeBron James, with a mix of these players’ skillsets potentially making the seven-foot Frenchman the most versatile player ever. However, it’s my job to question these comparisons, so here are my doubts about Wembanyama.
First of all, recent history has shown that higher draft picks aren’t able to carry their team to the playoffs in their first year, like Wembanyama will be expected to. The only rookie drafted top-3 since 2008 to start the majority of games for a playoff team is Jayson Tatum and he had plenty of help in 2018. This is because, as you would expect, the teams with early picks have been really bad, especially recently with superteams, and many organizations tanking (which Wembanyama calls a “weird strategy”). The Spurs, who will presumably take him, are no exception to sucking on purpose, as last season they only had two players who averaged more than 15 points per game. So, without help, Wembanyama will most likely have to wait three or four years for his first Spurs playoff appearance, and get a slow start to his NBA career.
“But Alex,” you might say. “Wembanyama was an insane player in France.” And to that I say, “not really.” This season for Metropolitans 92 of the LNB, the French basketball league, Victor Wembanyama averaged 21.6 points, 10.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game, with a 27.4% three-point percentage. His stats are okay, but not that impressive when you consider he was the star player of a team in the French finals. His three-point percentage pales in comparison to Kristaps Porzingis’ (another comparison) 45.9% in Europe. If you put his game averages in the NCAA this past season, he would have been only 12th in points per game and 8th in rebounds per game, and his assists per game would be well below average. Overall, he would be a dominant big man in college, like a slightly-less dangerous Zach Edey.
“Okay, bud,” you would say next. “His athleticism will carry him at the next level more than what the stats say.” And then my next response would be, “Will it?” I get how his size makes him an unique player, but the NBA is no stranger to players taller than seven-foot. Due to the size of some NBA big men, Wemby might chose to shoot a three rather than drive to hoop and because of his low three-point percentage, some players might let him shoot. That is, unless, of course, Wembanyama completely switches his game up. It may be more successful for him to play under the rim on both ends of the floor in the way that dominant big men like Yao Ming, Shaq or Kareem had. For Wembanyama to be most successful, it may be best for him to transition to being an old-school big man. No seven-footer has ever tried to play the way that Wembanyama does, and there’s a reason for that, because they aren’t usually that successful.
So since Wembanyama might under-perform next year, who out of this draft class might succeed? I predict G League Ignite Guard Scoot Henderson will be the best player drafted this year and projected Charlotte Hornets pick may then win Rookie of the Year. I think that he’s a better player than Wembanyama because he’s been more consistent in his league, though he averages less points. Henderson will be coming from an American league, so his style of play will be easier to transition to the NBA, which has troubled international players like Wembanyama in the past. The biggest factor that makes Henderson better is that he’s a better fit for his projected team, as he can tandem LaMelo Ball for a dangerous backcourt and replace him with injuries. That is, if the Hornets actually take the future star, as their outgoing GM and actual GOAT Michael Jordan is still considering whether to pick him or not.
All in all, I’m not saying Wembanyama is the next Hasheem Thabeet, but he certainly isn’t the next name on NBA’s Mount Rushmore, either. He’ll have a solid career as a controlling big man, maybe winning some Defensive Player of the Year awards along the way, but he won’t be a Hall of Famer, and he may never win a championship without the right teammates. With all the expectations and pressure on such a young player who’s never played in the US before, don’t expect him to be the next great.
My Projected Lottery Picks:
- Spurs: Victor Wembanyama
- Hornets: Scoot Henderson
- Trailblazers: Brandon Miller
- Rockets: Amen Thompson
- Pistons: Cam Whitmore
- Magic: Jerace Walker
- Pacers: Taylor Hendricks
- Wizards: Gradey Dick
- Jazz: Ausar Thompson
- Mavericks: Jaime Jaquez
- Magic: Anthony Black
- Thunder: Bilal Coulibaly
- Raptors: Cason Wallace
- Pelicans: Kobe Bufkin
Sources:
https://www.proballers.com/basketball/player/180211/victor-wembanyama/totals
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/
https://stats.gleague.nba.com/player/1630703/boxscores-traditional/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_NBA_draft
https://fadeawayworld.net/victor-wembanyama-vs-lebron-james-nba-draft-full-comparison
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/individual/136
https://www.euroleaguebasketball.net/eurocup/players/kristaps-porzingis/003695/